Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Mon, Oct 12 · 17:00 · IF Elfsborg vs Halmstads BK
Likeliest: IF Elfsborg win · 73%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 73% for the home win. The market says 71%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IF Elfsborg73%71%+2
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Halmstads BK10%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 29% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 86% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IF Elfsborg
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Sep 20 · at Djurgården (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Kalmar (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at IF Brommapojkarna (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Degerfors IF (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Göteborg (A)1-1
Halmstads BK
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 20 · v AIK (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Göteborg (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Degerfors IF (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v Kalmar (H)1-0
- Aug 26 · at Skövde AIK (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | IF Elfsborg | Halmstads BK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.