Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Fri, Oct 23 · 17:00 · IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF
Likeliest: IF Elfsborg win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IF Elfsborg40%43%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+3
OursMarket
Malmö FF31%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IF Elfsborg
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at IK Sirius (A)2-2
- Oct 12 · v Halmstads BK (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · at Djurgården (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Kalmar (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at IF Brommapojkarna (A)1-2
Malmö FF
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v BK Häcken (H)0-1
- Oct 12 · v Kalmar (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Västerås SK (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · v Örgryte IS (H)4-1
- Sep 7 · v AIK (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | IF Elfsborg | Malmö FF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.