Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · IF Gnistan vs AC Oulu
Likeliest: IF Gnistan win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 55%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IF Gnistan43%43%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
AC Oulu29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 55% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IF Gnistan
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at HJK (A)0-4
- Oct 12 · at VPS (A)0-1
- Oct 7 · v Inter Turku (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · v HJK (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at AC Oulu (A)2-1
AC Oulu
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Inter Turku (A)1-0
- Oct 12 · v HJK (H)3-4
- Oct 8 · at KuPS (A)1-0
- Sep 18 · v Inter Turku (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · v IF Gnistan (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | IF Gnistan | AC Oulu |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.