1. Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 18 · 10:30 · Iğdır FK vs Boluspor
Likeliest: Iğdır FK win · 82%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 38%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Iğdır FK82%79%+3
OursMarket
Draw13%14%−1
OursMarket
Boluspor6%7%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 38% | +20 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 93% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 18% | 21% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 86% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Iğdır FK
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 14 · at Keçiörengücü (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Batman Petrolspor (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · at Muğlaspor (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Mardin 1969 Spor (H)1-0
- Sep 7 · at İstanbulspor (A)2-1
Boluspor
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 14 · at Ümraniyespor (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Antalyaspor (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Sarıyer (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Pendikspor (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Bandırmaspor (A)0-6
| Last 10 games | Iğdır FK | Boluspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.