Superettan (Sweden) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 · IK Brage vs Helsingborg
Likeliest: IK Brage win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IK Brage38%41%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%24%+3
OursMarket
Helsingborg35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IK Brage
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at Varbergs BoIS (A)2-3
- Sep 15 · v Sandvikens IF (H)1-1
- Sep 10 · at Östersunds FK (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v GIF Sundsvall (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Falkenbergs FF (A)1-4
Helsingborg
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 20 · v Norrby IF (H)0-0
- Sep 14 · at Östersunds FK (A)0-1
- Sep 9 · at Landskrona (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Sandvikens IF (H)0-2
- Sep 1 · v Örebro (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | IK Brage | Helsingborg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.