Superettan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:00 · IK Brage vs Östers IF
Likeliest: IK Brage win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IK Brage46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Östers IF29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IK Brage
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Ljungskile SK (A)0-2
- Oct 11 · v Helsingborg (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Varbergs BoIS (A)2-3
- Sep 15 · v Sandvikens IF (H)1-1
- Sep 10 · at Östersunds FK (A)1-1
Östers IF
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v IK Oddevold (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Norrby IF (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Norrköping (H)1-3
- Sep 15 · at Värnamo (A)3-1
- Sep 10 · at Falkenbergs FF (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | IK Brage | Östers IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.