Superettan (Sweden) · Fri, Oct 23 · 17:00 · IK Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall
Likeliest: IK Oddevold win · 68%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IK Oddevold68%65%+3
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
GIF Sundsvall13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 62% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IK Oddevold
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Östers IF (A)1-3
- Oct 10 · v United IK Nordic (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Värnamo (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Norrköping (A)0-0
- Sep 9 · at Sandvikens IF (A)1-0
GIF Sundsvall
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Värnamo (H)0-1
- Oct 13 · at Norrköping (A)0-4
- Sep 20 · v Ljungskile SK (H)3-2
- Sep 15 · at Landskrona (A)0-4
- Sep 10 · v Örebro (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | IK Oddevold | GIF Sundsvall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-3 | 2-0-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.