Superettan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 10 · 15:00 · IK Oddevold vs United IK Nordic
Likeliest: IK Oddevold win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IK Oddevold46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−2
OursMarket
United IK Nordic30%28%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IK Oddevold
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · v Värnamo (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Norrköping (A)0-0
- Sep 9 · at Sandvikens IF (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Falkenbergs FF (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Varbergs BoIS (A)1-3
United IK Nordic
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · v Landskrona (H)1-4
- Sep 14 · at Örebro (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Värnamo (H)2-4
- Sep 4 · at Östers IF (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Norrköping (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | IK Oddevold | United IK Nordic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 4-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.