Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:00 · IK Sirius vs AIK
Likeliest: IK Sirius win · 62%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IK Sirius62%59%+3
OursMarket
Draw20%22%−1
OursMarket
AIK18%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IK Sirius
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 18 · v IF Elfsborg (H)2-2
- Oct 10 · at GAIS (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Örgryte IS (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v Degerfors IF (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Västerås SK (A)1-0
AIK
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Göteborg (H)2-2
- Oct 10 · v IF Brommapojkarna (H)5-6
- Sep 20 · at Halmstads BK (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · v Mjällby (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Västerås SK (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | IK Sirius | AIK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.