Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Tue, Nov 3 · 18:00 · IK Sirius vs Halmstads BK
Likeliest: IK Sirius win · 77%
Likely scores: 2–0 12% · 1–0 8% · 3–0 8%
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IK Sirius77%73%+4
OursMarket
Draw14%16%−3
OursMarket
Halmstads BK9%10%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 67% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 52% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 90% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 23% | 27% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IK Sirius
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 29 · at Hammarby (A)0-2
- Oct 24 · v AIK (H)1-2
- Oct 18 · v IF Elfsborg (H)2-2
- Oct 10 · at GAIS (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Örgryte IS (A)2-1
Halmstads BK
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 28 · v Malmö FF (H)0-3
- Oct 23 · at Västerås SK (A)2-1
- Oct 18 · v Hammarby (H)0-1
- Oct 12 · at IF Elfsborg (A)0-4
- Sep 20 · v AIK (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | IK Sirius | Halmstads BK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.