Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:00 · IK Sirius vs IF Elfsborg
Likeliest: IK Sirius win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IK Sirius46%48%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+2
OursMarket
IF Elfsborg27%26%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IK Sirius
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at GAIS (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Örgryte IS (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v Degerfors IF (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Västerås SK (A)1-0
- Aug 31 · v Malmö FF (H)0-1
IF Elfsborg
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 12 · v Halmstads BK (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · at Djurgården (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Kalmar (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at IF Brommapojkarna (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Degerfors IF (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | IK Sirius | IF Elfsborg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.