Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 · IK Start vs HamKam
Likeliest: IK Start win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IK Start48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
HamKam26%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IK Start
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 6 · at Raufoss (A)5-1
- Sep 20 · at Sandefjord Fotball (A)0-3
- Sep 16 · at Vindbjart (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · v SK Brann (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at Aalesunds FK (A)0-2
HamKam
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at Tromsø IL (A)2-3
- Sep 16 · at Kjelsås (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Molde FK (H)1-5
- Sep 5 · at Rosenborg BK (A)0-4
- Aug 30 · v Kristiansund BK (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | IK Start | HamKam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.