Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · IK Start vs Sandefjord Fotball
Likeliest: IK Start win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IK Start44%44%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Sandefjord Fotball30%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IK Start
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Molde FK (A)1-6
- Oct 11 · v HamKam (H)2-4
- Oct 6 · at Raufoss (A)5-1
- Sep 20 · at Sandefjord Fotball (A)0-3
- Sep 16 · at Vindbjart (A)3-2
Sandefjord Fotball
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)0-2
- Oct 10 · at Rosenborg BK (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · at Flint FK (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v IK Start (H)3-0
- Sep 14 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | IK Start | Sandefjord Fotball |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-4 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.