Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Sat, Sep 12 · 16:00 · Ilves vs FC Lahti
Likeliest: Ilves win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ilves43%44%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
FC Lahti30%31%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ilves
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Sep 8 · v FF Jaro (H)2-0
- Aug 31 · v HJK (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · v VPS (H)0-1
- Aug 17 · at IF Gnistan (A)2-3
- Aug 13 · v HNK Rijeka (H)1-1
FC Lahti
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Sep 8 · v IFK Mariehamn (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at VPS (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · at SJK (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · v KuPS (H)1-2
- Aug 9 · at Inter Turku (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Ilves | FC Lahti |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.