Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 · Ilves vs SJK
Likeliest: Ilves win · 50%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ilves50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
SJK24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 59% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ilves
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at IFK Mariehamn (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at TPS (A)3-0
- Sep 12 · v FC Lahti (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · v FF Jaro (H)2-0
- Aug 31 · v HJK (H)1-2
SJK
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 9 · v FC Lahti (H)1-0
- Sep 18 · v IFK Mariehamn (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at FF Jaro (A)1-1
- Sep 8 · at TPS (A)0-0
- Aug 31 · at AC Oulu (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Ilves | SJK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.