K League 1 (South Korea) · Sun, Sep 20 · 10:00 · Incheon United vs Daejeon Hana Citizen
Likeliest: Daejeon Hana Citizen win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Incheon United32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Daejeon Hana Citizen38%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Incheon United
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at Ulsan HD (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · v Bucheon FC 1995 (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at FC Seoul (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)1-1
- Aug 26 · at FC Anyang (A)1-2
Daejeon Hana Citizen
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 15 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Pohang Steelers (H)2-2
- Sep 9 · v FC Anyang (H)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)5-0
- Aug 30 · at Jeju SK (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Incheon United | Daejeon Hana Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.