K League 1 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 24 · 05:00 · Incheon United vs Jeju SK
Likeliest: Incheon United win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Incheon United39%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Jeju SK29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Incheon United
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at Gangwon FC (A)1-1
- Oct 9 · v Pohang Steelers (H)3-0
- Sep 27 · at Gangwon FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Daejeon Hana Citizen (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Ulsan HD (A)1-2
Jeju SK
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · at FC Seoul (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Gangwon FC (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)2-2
- Sep 9 · at Gwangju FC (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Incheon United | Jeju SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.