K League 1 (South Korea) · Fri, Oct 9 · 07:30 · Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers
Likeliest: Incheon United win · 38%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Incheon United38%41%−3
OursMarket
Draw34%30%+3
OursMarket
Pohang Steelers28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 38% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 45% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Incheon United
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 27 · at Gangwon FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Daejeon Hana Citizen (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Ulsan HD (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · v Bucheon FC 1995 (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at FC Seoul (A)0-1
Pohang Steelers
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 20 · v FC Seoul (H)2-1
- Sep 15 · at Beijing Guoan (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)2-2
- Sep 9 · v Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Incheon United | Pohang Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.