LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:30 · Independiente del Valle vs Aucas
Likeliest: Independiente del Valle win · 63%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Independiente del Valle63%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Aucas15%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Independiente del Valle
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 18 · at Flamengo (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Libertad (A)3-2
- Sep 11 · v Flamengo (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Macará (H)3-1
- Sep 3 · at Barcelona SC (A)1-2
Aucas
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · v Macará (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Manta FC (A)0-0
- Sep 7 · v Barcelona SC (H)1-1
- Sep 3 · at Universidad Católica del Ecuador (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Libertad (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Independiente del Valle | Aucas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 4-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.