Copa Libertadores (South America) · Wed, Aug 26 · 00:30 · Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima
Likeliest: Independiente del Valle win · 68%
We make it 68% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Independiente del Valle68%62%+6
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
Deportes Tolima11%15%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 43% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 38% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 80% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Independiente del Valle
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 22 · at Leones del Norte (A)3-2
- Aug 19 · at Deportes Tolima (A)1-0
- Aug 15 · v Delfín (H)3-2
- Aug 8 · at LDU (A)2-0
- Aug 2 · v Deportivo Cuenca (H)1-0
Deportes Tolima
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Aug 22 · v Atlético Bucaramanga (H)0-0
- Aug 19 · v Independiente del Valle (H)0-1
- Aug 14 · at Llaneros FC (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · v Internacional de Bogotá (H)2-1
- Aug 4 · v Independiente Medellín (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Independiente del Valle | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 10-0-0 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 2-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.