Copa Libertadores (South America) · Fri, Sep 11 · 00:30 · Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo
Likeliest: Independiente del Valle win · 38%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Independiente del Valle38%36%+2
OursMarket
Draw26%33%−7
OursMarket
Flamengo36%31%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 42% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 50% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 69% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 67% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Independiente del Valle
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 5 · v Macará (H)3-1
- Sep 3 · at Barcelona SC (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Universidad Católica del Ecuador (H)2-2
- Aug 26 · v Deportes Tolima (H)3-1
- Aug 22 · at Leones del Norte (A)3-2
Flamengo
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 6 · at Remo (A)1-0
- Sep 2 · v Mirassol (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · v Botafogo (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Cruzeiro (A)1-2
- Aug 20 · v Cruzeiro (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Independiente del Valle | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.