LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Fri, Oct 23 · 20:30 · Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Likeliest: Independiente del Valle win · 58%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Independiente del Valle58%55%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Universidad Católica del Ecuador19%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Independiente del Valle
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Macará (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Aucas (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · at Flamengo (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Libertad (A)3-2
- Sep 11 · v Flamengo (H)0-2
Universidad Católica del Ecuador
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at Barcelona SC (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Macará (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at LDU (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · v Orense SC (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Delfín (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Independiente del Valle | Universidad Católica del Ecuador |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.