Primera A (Colombia) · Tue, Oct 6 · 00:00 · Independiente Medellín vs Independiente Santa Fe
Likeliest: Independiente Medellín win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Independiente Medellín47%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Independiente Santa Fe26%24%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 67% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Independiente Medellín
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 30 · v Millonarios (H)2-2
- Sep 27 · at Junior Barranquilla (A)0-2
- Sep 22 · v Jaguares de Córdoba (H)2-1
- Sep 17 · at Atlético Bucaramanga (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)1-2
Independiente Santa Fe
WinLossWinLossWin
- Sep 29 · at Deportivo Pereira (A)2-1
- Sep 23 · v Deportivo Cali (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Alianza Valledupar FC (A)4-1
- Sep 15 · at Vasco da Gama (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Deportes Tolima (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Independiente Medellín | Independiente Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.