Primera A (Colombia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 01:10 · Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas
Likeliest: Independiente Medellín win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Independiente Medellín46%50%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%27%+4
OursMarket
Once Caldas24%23%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 73% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 68% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Independiente Medellín
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 12 · at América de Cali (A)2-1
- Oct 6 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)0-1
- Sep 30 · v Millonarios (H)2-2
- Sep 27 · at Junior Barranquilla (A)0-2
- Sep 22 · v Jaguares de Córdoba (H)2-1
Once Caldas
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 10 · v Llaneros FC (H)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Internacional de Bogotá (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Atlético Bucaramanga (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo Pasto (A)0-1
- Sep 16 · v Deportes Tolima (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Independiente Medellín | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.