División Profesional (Bolivia) · Fri, Sep 18 · 23:00 · Independiente Petrolero vs San Antonio Bulo-Bulo
Likeliest: Independiente Petrolero win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Independiente Petrolero58%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
San Antonio Bulo-Bulo21%21%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Independiente Petrolero
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 13 · at FC Universitario de Vinto (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v Bolívar (H)0-4
- Aug 27 · v Guabirá (H)3-1
- Aug 22 · at Nacional Potosí (A)0-3
- Aug 17 · v GV San José (H)1-0
San Antonio Bulo-Bulo
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 11 · v Club Aurora (H)0-2
- Sep 4 · at CDT Real Oruro (A)0-2
- Aug 26 · v The Strongest (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at Oriente Petrolero (A)0-4
- Aug 15 · at Bolívar (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Independiente Petrolero | San Antonio Bulo-Bulo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-6 | 0-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.