Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Nov 3 · 18:00 · Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve vs Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve
Likeliest: Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve win · 43%
Likely scores: 1–1 15% · 0–1 10% · 0–0 9%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
- Oct 28 · at Central Cordoba Reserve (A)1-0
- Oct 21 · v San Martin Reserve (H)3-2
- Oct 14 · at Colón Reserve (A)4-1
- Oct 7 · at CD Riestra Reserve (A)1-3
- Sep 30 · v Belgrano Reserve (H)0-0
- Oct 28 · v CD Riestra Reserve (H)1-1
- Oct 21 · at Belgrano Reserve (A)2-0
- Oct 14 · v Lanús Reserve (H)4-4
- Oct 6 · at Newell's Old Boys Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 29 · v Defensa y Justicia Reserve (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve | Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-2 | 3-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.