Copa Argentina (Argentina) · Wed, Sep 16 · 22:00 · Independiente Rivadavia vs Atlético Tucumán
Likeliest: Independiente Rivadavia win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Independiente Rivadavia41%43%−2
OursMarket
Draw34%33%+1
OursMarket
Atlético Tucumán24%24%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Independiente Rivadavia
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · v Aldosivi (H)4-3
- Sep 6 · at River Plate (A)1-3
- Aug 31 · v Racing Club (H)3-1
- Aug 26 · at Aldosivi (A)2-0
- Aug 22 · at CA Independiente (A)0-0
Atlético Tucumán
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 12 · v River Plate (H)1-2
- Sep 7 · at Racing Club (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Belgrano (H)0-0
- Aug 22 · v Instituto De Córdoba (H)0-0
- Aug 17 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Independiente Rivadavia | Atlético Tucumán |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.