Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Tue, Nov 3 · 00:15 · Independiente Rivadavia vs Banfield
Likeliest: Independiente Rivadavia win · 64%
Likely scores: 2–0 13% · 1–0 13% · 1–1 11%
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Independiente Rivadavia64%62%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Banfield14%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Independiente Rivadavia
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 27 · at Argentinos Juniors (A)0-1
- Oct 17 · v Tigre (H)2-2
- Oct 11 · at Rosario Central (A)0-5
- Oct 3 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima (H)1-1
- Sep 21 · at Barracas Central (A)1-0
Banfield
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 24 · v Lanús (H)1-1
- Oct 17 · v Argentinos Juniors (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Tigre (A)2-1
- Oct 6 · v Rosario Central (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Independiente Rivadavia | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.