Copa Libertadores (South America) · Tue, Aug 18 · 22:00 · Independiente Rivadavia vs Fluminense
Likeliest: Independiente Rivadavia win · 62%
We make it 48% for both teams to score. The market says 42%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Independiente Rivadavia62%40%+22
OursMarket
Draw23%32%−8
OursMarket
Fluminense15%29%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 42% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 71% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 60% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 68% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 58% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Independiente Rivadavia
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 15 · at Belgrano (A)0-2
- Aug 11 · at Fluminense (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (H)2-1
- Aug 3 · at Sarmiento (A)1-2
- Jul 30 · v Huracán (H)2-1
Fluminense
DrawLossDrawDrawWin
- Aug 15 · v Palmeiras (H)3-2
- Aug 11 · v Independiente Rivadavia (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · at Botafogo (A)1-1
- Aug 6 · v Vasco da Gama (H)1-3
- Aug 1 · at Vasco da Gama (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Independiente Rivadavia | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-7-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.