Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:30 · Independiente Rivadavia vs Tigre
Likeliest: Independiente Rivadavia win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Independiente Rivadavia50%51%0
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Tigre19%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 45% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Independiente Rivadavia
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at Rosario Central (A)0-5
- Oct 3 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima (H)1-1
- Sep 21 · at Barracas Central (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Atlético Tucumán (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Aldosivi (H)4-3
Tigre
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Banfield (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Argentinos Juniors (A)1-2
- Sep 21 · at Vélez Sarsfield (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Rosario Central (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Independiente Rivadavia | Tigre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.