Primera A (Colombia) · Thu, Oct 22 · 01:20 · Independiente Santa Fe vs Jaguares de Córdoba
Likeliest: Independiente Santa Fe win · 72%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Independiente Santa Fe72%69%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Jaguares de Córdoba9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 31% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Independiente Santa Fe
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Llaneros FC (A)0-1
- Oct 6 · at Independiente Medellín (A)1-0
- Sep 29 · at Deportivo Pereira (A)2-1
- Sep 23 · v Deportivo Cali (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Alianza Valledupar FC (A)4-1
Jaguares de Córdoba
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Millonarios (A)1-4
- Oct 11 · v Deportes Tolima (H)3-2
- Oct 3 · at Rionegro Águilas Doradas (A)0-2
- Sep 27 · v Alianza Valledupar FC (H)1-2
- Sep 22 · at Independiente Medellín (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Independiente Santa Fe | Jaguares de Córdoba |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 0-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.