Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Tue, Sep 8 · 22:00 · Independiente Santa Fe vs Vasco da Gama
Likeliest: Independiente Santa Fe win · 45%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Independiente Santa Fe45%39%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Vasco da Gama29%32%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 38% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 44% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 68% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 61% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 55% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Independiente Santa Fe
DrawDrawDrawWinDraw
- Sep 5 · v Fortaleza CEIF (H)2-2
- Sep 3 · v Millonarios (H)3-2
- Aug 29 · at Junior Barranquilla (A)1-1
- Aug 27 · at River Plate (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v América de Cali (H)0-0
Vasco da Gama
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 6 · at Fluminense (A)0-1
- Sep 3 · at Vitória (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · v Cruzeiro (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · v Vitória (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · at Palmeiras (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Independiente Santa Fe | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-0 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.