Friendly International (World) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · India vs Brazil
Likeliest: Brazil win · 97%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 42%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
India1%2%−1
OursMarket
Draw3%4%−2
OursMarket
Brazil97%94%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 42% | +16 |
| Double chance 1X | 3% | 6% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 99% | 98% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 98% | 96% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 1% | 2% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
India
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 25 · v Panama (H)0-0
- Jun 9 · at Tajikistan (A)1-1
- Jun 5 · at Tajikistan (A)1-3
- May 30 · at Zimbabwe (A)0-1
- May 27 · at Jamaica (A)2-0
Brazil
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 29 · at Australia (A)4-2
- Sep 25 · at Australia (A)0-0
- Jul 5 · v Norway (H)1-2
- Jun 29 · v Japan (H)2-1
- Jun 24 · at Scotland (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | India | Brazil |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-1 | 4-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.