Friendly International (World) · Tue, Oct 6 · 14:00 · India vs Uruguay
Likeliest: Uruguay win · 95%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 95% for the away win. The market says 92%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
India1%3%−1
OursMarket
Draw4%5%−1
OursMarket
Uruguay95%92%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% | 86% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 5% | 8% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 99% | 97% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 96% | 95% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 1% | 3% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
India
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · v Brazil (H)0-4
- Sep 25 · v Panama (H)0-0
- Jun 9 · at Tajikistan (A)1-1
- Jun 5 · at Tajikistan (A)1-3
- May 30 · at Zimbabwe (A)0-1
Uruguay
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 28 · at South Korea (A)4-1
- Sep 24 · at Japan (A)1-3
- Jun 27 · v Spain (H)0-1
- Jun 21 · v Cape Verde (H)2-2
- Jun 15 · at Saudi Arabia (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | India | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.