USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 10 · 23:00 · Indy Eleven vs FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
Likeliest: FC Tampa Bay Rowdies win · 47%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Indy Eleven27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
FC Tampa Bay Rowdies47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 40% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Indy Eleven
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 3 · at Loudoun United FC (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · at Rhode Island FC (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Miami FC (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Oakland Roots SC (H)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Brooklyn FC (H)4-0
FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · v Miami FC (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · at San Antonio FC (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Birmingham Legion FC (H)4-0
- Sep 12 · at Hartford Athletic (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Brooklyn FC (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Indy Eleven | FC Tampa Bay Rowdies |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-3 | 4-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.