Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Oct 13 · 18:00 · Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves vs River Plate Reserve
Likeliest: River Plate Reserve win · 50%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
River Plate Reserve50%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 34% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 7 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · v Racing Reserve (H)2-2
- Sep 24 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve (H)0-2
- Sep 17 · at Barracas Central Reserve (A)1-3
- Sep 9 · v Sarmiento Reserve (H)2-2
River Plate Reserve
DrawDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 6 · at Racing Reserve (A)2-2
- Oct 1 · v Sarmiento Reserve (H)1-0
- Sep 25 · v Boca Juniors Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 15 · at Argentinos Juniors Reserve (A)0-0
- Sep 8 · v Aldosivi Reserve (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves | River Plate Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-1 | 3-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.