Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova
Likeliest: Universitatea Craiova win · 64%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 64% for the away win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter Club d'Escaldes12%16%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Universitatea Craiova64%60%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 36% | 40% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 84% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 15% | 21% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter Club d'Escaldes
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 15 · at Mjällby (A)0-2
- Aug 27 · v FC Drita (H)0-0
- Aug 20 · at FC Drita (A)2-2
- Aug 13 · at Flora Tallinn (A)4-0
- Aug 6 · v Flora Tallinn (H)2-0
Universitatea Craiova
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v FC Farul Constanța (H)2-0
- Oct 15 · v Getafe (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v FCSB (H)5-0
- Sep 13 · at FC Corvinul Hunedoara (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Inter Club d'Escaldes | Universitatea Craiova |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-0 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.