Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Oct 13 · 19:00 · Inter Milan vs Club Brugge KV
Likeliest: Inter Milan win · 77%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 77% for the home win. The market says 74%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter Milan77%74%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Club Brugge KV7%9%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 91% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 23% | 26% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter Milan
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Parma (H)3-0
- Oct 4 · at FC Como (A)2-0
- Sep 27 · v Fiorentina (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Roma (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Udinese (H)5-3
Club Brugge KV
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at RAAL La Louvière (A)4-1
- Sep 20 · v KRC Genk (H)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Royal Antwerp FC (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · v Aston Villa (H)2-3
- Sep 4 · at Lommel SK (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Inter Milan | Club Brugge KV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.