Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Oct 25 · 11:30 · Inter Milan vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Inter Milan win · 74%
Likely score: 2–1
A 74% home win. The market says 70%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter Milan74%70%+4
OursMarket
Draw15%17%−2
OursMarket
Fiorentina10%12%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 30% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 85% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter Milan
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Parma (H)3-0
- Oct 17 · at Bologna (A)3-1
- Oct 13 · v Club Brugge KV (H)3-4
- Oct 10 · v Parma (H)3-0
- Oct 4 · at FC Como (A)2-0
Fiorentina
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · v Como (H)1-3
- Oct 17 · at FC Como (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Genoa (A)1-2
- Oct 3 · v Sassuolo (H)2-0
- Sep 27 · at Inter Milan (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Inter Milan | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.