Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:00 · Inter Milan vs Parma
Likeliest: Inter Milan win · 87%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 87% for the home win. The market says 84%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter Milan87%84%+3
OursMarket
Draw9%11%−2
OursMarket
Parma4%5%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 96% | 95% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 13% | 16% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 91% | 89% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 95% | 94% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter Milan
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 4 · at FC Como (A)2-0
- Sep 27 · v Fiorentina (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Roma (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Udinese (H)5-3
- Sep 8 · at Real Madrid (A)1-2
Parma
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · v Ternana (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Lazio (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Genoa (H)2-1
- Sep 14 · at Como (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Monza (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Inter Milan | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.