Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Oct 21 · 19:00 · Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Likeliest: Inter Milan win · 82%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 82% for the home win. The market says 78%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter Milan82%78%+3
OursMarket
Draw12%14%−2
OursMarket
Shakhtar Donetsk6%8%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 18% | 22% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 93% | 91% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter Milan
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Parma (H)3-0
- Oct 17 · at Bologna (A)3-1
- Oct 13 · v Club Brugge KV (H)3-4
- Oct 10 · v Parma (H)3-0
- Oct 4 · at FC Como (A)2-0
Shakhtar Donetsk
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Kolos Kovalivka (H)2-1
- Oct 14 · v AEK Athens (H)3-1
- Oct 9 · at Veres Rivne (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v LNZ Cherkasy (H)3-0
- Sep 14 · v Chornomorets Odesa (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Inter Milan | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.