Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 15:00 · Inter Turku vs AC Oulu
Likeliest: Inter Turku win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 52% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter Turku56%65%−9
OursMarket
Draw27%21%+5
OursMarket
AC Oulu17%14%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 44% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 86% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 35% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 79% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 83% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter Turku
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v KuPS (H)1-0
- Oct 7 · at IF Gnistan (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · at AC Oulu (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · v VPS (H)1-0
- Sep 9 · at HJK (A)1-2
AC Oulu
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 12 · v HJK (H)3-4
- Oct 8 · at KuPS (A)1-0
- Sep 18 · v Inter Turku (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · v IF Gnistan (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · at VPS (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Inter Turku | AC Oulu |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.