Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 · Inter Turku vs KuPS
Likeliest: Inter Turku win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 48% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter Turku43%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
KuPS28%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 43% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter Turku
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 7 · at IF Gnistan (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · at AC Oulu (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · v VPS (H)1-0
- Sep 9 · at HJK (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · v KuPS (H)1-0
KuPS
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 8 · v AC Oulu (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at VPS (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v HJK (H)0-0
- Sep 8 · at IF Gnistan (A)1-1
- Aug 31 · at Inter Turku (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Inter Turku | KuPS |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.