Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Mar 14 · 14:00 · Inter vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Inter win · 49%
We make it 67% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter49%61%−12
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+2
OursMarket
Atalanta28%17%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 55% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 53% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 83% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 39% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 78% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Mar 8 · at AC Milan (A)0-1
- Mar 3 · at Como (A)0-0
- Feb 28 · v Genoa (H)2-0
- Feb 24 · v Bodø / Glimt (H)1-2
- Feb 21 · at Lecce (A)2-0
Atalanta
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Mar 10 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-6
- Mar 7 · v Udinese (H)2-2
- Mar 4 · at Lazio (A)2-2
- Mar 1 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Feb 25 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Inter | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.