Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Jan 4 · 19:45 · Inter vs Bologna
Likeliest: Inter win · 55%
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter55%67%−12
OursMarket
Draw25%20%+5
OursMarket
Bologna20%13%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 87% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 33% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 80% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 84% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter
WinWinLossWinWin
- Dec 28 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
- Dec 14 · at Genoa (A)2-1
- Dec 9 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
- Dec 6 · v Como (H)4-0
- Dec 3 · v Venezia (H)5-1
Bologna
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Dec 28 · v Sassuolo (H)1-1
- Dec 14 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Dec 11 · at Celta de Vigo (A)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Lazio (A)1-1
- Dec 4 · v Parma (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Inter | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.