Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Apr 17 · 18:45 · Inter vs Cagliari
Likeliest: Inter win · 61%
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 43%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter61%77%−16
OursMarket
Draw21%15%+6
OursMarket
Cagliari18%8%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 60% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 43% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 92% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 23% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 85% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 91% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Apr 12 · at Como (A)4-3
- Apr 5 · v Roma (H)5-2
- Mar 22 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
- Mar 14 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · at AC Milan (A)0-1
Cagliari
LossLossLossLossWin
- Apr 11 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Mar 20 · v Napoli (H)0-1
- Mar 15 · at Pisa (A)1-3
- Mar 7 · v Como (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Inter | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.