Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Dec 6 · 17:00 · Inter vs Como
Likeliest: Inter win · 60%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter60%62%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Como17%16%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 84% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 38% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 80% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter
WinLossLossWinWin
- Dec 3 · v Venezia (H)5-1
- Nov 30 · at Pisa (A)2-0
- Nov 26 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-2
- Nov 23 · v Milan (H)0-1
- Nov 9 · v Lazio (H)2-0
Como
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Nov 28 · v Sassuolo (H)2-0
- Nov 24 · at Torino (A)5-1
- Nov 8 · v Cagliari (H)0-0
- Nov 1 · at Napoli (A)0-0
- Oct 29 · v Hellas Verona (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Inter | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.