Coppa Italia (Italy) · Tue, Apr 21 · 19:00 · Inter vs Como
Likeliest: Inter win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter51%53%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Como24%21%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 79% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 71% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Apr 17 · v Cagliari (H)3-0
- Apr 12 · at Como (A)4-3
- Apr 5 · v Roma (H)5-2
- Mar 22 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
- Mar 14 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
Como
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Apr 17 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Apr 12 · v Inter (H)3-4
- Apr 6 · at Udinese (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Pisa (H)5-0
- Mar 15 · v Roma (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Inter | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.