Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 22 · 19:45 · Inter vs Genoa
Likeliest: Inter win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Inter55%——
OursMarket
Draw21%——
OursMarket
Genoa24%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Feb 16 · at Juventus (A)0-1
- Feb 10 · v Fiorentina (H)2-1
- Feb 6 · at Fiorentina (A)0-3
- Feb 2 · at Milan (A)1-1
- Jan 29 · v Monaco (H)3-0
Genoa
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Feb 17 · v Venezia (H)2-0
- Feb 8 · at Torino (A)1-1
- Feb 2 · at Fiorentina (A)1-2
- Jan 27 · v Monza (H)2-0
- Jan 17 · at Roma (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Inter | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 57% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.