Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 28 · 19:45 · Inter vs Genoa
Likeliest: Inter win · 63%
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter63%72%−9
OursMarket
Draw19%18%+1
OursMarket
Genoa18%10%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 44% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 90% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 28% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 82% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 88% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Feb 24 · v Bodø / Glimt (H)1-2
- Feb 21 · at Lecce (A)2-0
- Feb 18 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)1-3
- Feb 14 · v Juventus (H)3-2
- Feb 8 · at Sassuolo (A)5-0
Genoa
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Feb 22 · v Torino (H)3-0
- Feb 15 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
- Feb 7 · v Napoli (H)2-3
- Jan 30 · at Lazio (A)2-3
- Jan 25 · v Bologna (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Inter | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.